Great Britain’s Senior Women have two wins from their four games in the EuroBasket qualifiers so far, and are well placed to make it back to the Final Round.
After a historic run to the semi-finals in 2019 was followed by missing the next edition two years later, GB returned to the tournament in 2023 – and finished in 10th place.
A second defeat to Sweden – who clinched qualification as Group D winners – means that GB’s only route of qualification is via one of the best four runners-up spots.
GB are currently second in the group with a 2-2 record – and more importantly a healthy +46 points difference – which has them as the fourth best runners-up, as things stand. Estonia and Denmark both have a 1-3 record.
So, first and foremost, what do GB need to do to ensure they finish second? Here’s how things could play out as they host Estonia on Thursday before heading to Denmark on the final day on Sunday:
Beat Estonia AND Denmark = 4-2
Nice and simple, second spot confirmed. And it goes without saying that this gives the best chance at qualification amongst the other runners-up – this should be enough.
Beat Estonia, lose to Denmark = 3-3
This depends on how Denmark get on against unbeaten Sweden – if they lose, then GB will be second in this scenario. However, if Denmark win both games – then second spot will be decided by the H2H – GB won the first encounter by 13 points, so keeping it close would be important.
Lose to Estonia, beat Denmark = 3-3
Similar to the example above – but in this case, GB won the previous meeting against Estonia by 38 points so it would take a huge defeat to miss out on finishing second.
Lose to Estonia AND Denmark = 2-4
It’s still possible for GB to finish in second place – if Sweden win both of their games, then a three-way tie between GB, DEN & EST at 2-4 will occur. In any case, with three groups already involving multiple teams with three wins, then it’s almost a certainty that a 2-4 record would not be enough to advance.
Now, this is where things are out of GB’s control. If they finish second, they then need to have a better record than four teams among the seven other runners-up. Being 4-2 or 3-3 makes a HUGE difference.
Group A: CRO 2-2 (+14), NED 2-2 (+4)
Spain very likely win the group, so it comes down to Croatia and the Netherlands. A win for the Dutch before losing to Spain could work in GB’s interests here – as Croatia also face winless Austria in their final game.
Group B: SLO 3-1 (+25), HUN 2-2 (+8), FIN 2-2 (-10)
Slightly more wide-open this group. Bulgaria in fourth are also a dangerous team, so rooting for them to pull off another upset would be beneficial – Holly and Temi played alongside the naturalised Khaalia Hilsman this season at Besiktas.
Group C: BEL 3-1 (+117), LTU 3-1 (+89), POL 2-2 (+54)
It’s very likely that one of the runners-up spots will be taken from this group, given the huge points difference involved with being with Azerbaijan (currently -260 from four games).
Group E: LAT 2-2 (-18), ISR 2-2 (+14)
France are virtually through, so another decider between Israel and Latvia. Israel have the better points difference, but also have to play France – so if both teams split their remaining games, this could be an ideal situation.
Group F: SVK 2-2 (-26), ROU 1-3 (-55), ISL 1-3 (-23)
Türkiye have been so far clear in this group, and their margins of victory have hurt their opponents’ chances. Slovakia are best placed, with two home games against Romania and Iceland a chance to boost a poor looking points difference.
Group G: SRB 4-0 (+145), POR 3-1 (+27)
The top two could set up a showdown to win the group with home wins on the first gameday. Ukraine could still advance, but would need to beat Portugal by at least 15 to have a chance at finishing second – any margin of win could be beneficial to GB, however.
Group H: LUX 3-1 (+28), MNE 3-1 (+56), SUI 2-2 (+2)
The story of the campaign would be Luxembourg qualifying for the first time. They have a massive game in Montenegro, which could prove to be the decider if both teams head into the contest at 4-1.
All in all, a lot can still happen. Two wins more than likely would be enough to qualify, barring huge wins elsewhere, whereas finishing second with a 3-3 record could set up a very tense Sunday afternoon – particularly with GB’s game tipping at 1pm UK time.
This article will be updated over the course of the window to stay up with the ongoing situations – though is not to be regarded as official information.
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