Battle to make the WBBL Cup semi-finals enters final weekend

Image credit: Mansoor Ahmed / ahmedphotos

Three spots are still to be decided this weekend as the semi-final lineup in the WBBL Cup will be confirmed after the weekend’s action.

Sevenoaks Suns are guaranteed to advance from the South group with Oaklands Wolves – who had all three games cancelled due to the COVID-19 regulations – eliminated, while all four teams are in contention in the North group.

A lot can still happen, but hopefully this is not as confusing as it may appear:

North Group

Leicester Riders 2-0 (+34)
Nottingham Wildcats 1-1 (0)
Newcastle Eagles 1-1 (-3)
Manchester Met Mystics 0-2 (-31)

• Leicester Riders will advance with a win, and top the group
  • They will also advance if they lose by less than 14 points OR if Manchester win
  • They will be eliminated if they lose by 14+ points AND Nottingham win
• Nottingham Wildcats will advance with a win AND Leicester win
  • They will also advance with a win if Newcastle win in all but one specific scenario***
  • They will advance with a loss if it is by less than 12 points AND Leicester win
  • They can also top the group with a win by 22+ points AND Newcastle win by exactly 13****
  • They will be eliminated if they lose by 12+ points OR if they lose AND Newcastle win
• Newcastle Eagles will advance with a win by 14+ points** OR with any win if Manchester win
  • They will also win the group with any win AND if Manchester win
  • They will be eliminated with a loss OR if they win by less than 13 points AND Nottingham win
  • They will advance if they win by exactly 13 points AND Nottingham win by less than 10 points
• Manchester Met Mystics will advance if they win by 12+ points* AND Leicester win
  • They will be eliminated if they lose OR if Newcastle win
  • They cannot win the group

*If Leicester win and Manchester win, there will be a three-way tie for second place and the head-to-head currently looks like this:

1. Wildcats 1-0 (+13)
2. Eagles 1-1 (-3)
3. Mystics 0-1 (-10)

**If Newcastle win and Manchester win, there will be a three-way tie for first place and the head-to-head currently looks like this:

1. Riders 1-0 (+13)
2. Wildcats 1-1 (0)
3. Eagles 0-1 (-13)

***In the case that Newcastle win by exactly 13 points and Nottingham win by less than 10 points, the head-to-head standings would look like this:

1. Riders 2-1 (0)
2. Eagles 2-1 (0)
3. Mystics 2-1 (0)

The tie-break would then revert to overall points difference, which effectively adds in the result against the Mystics. Riders won by 21, Eagles won by 10 so if the Wildcats did not win by at least double figures they would finish third. An exact 10-point margin would favour the Wildcats as they hold the H2H in the two-team tie-break.

****The same scenario applies for the group winner. If the Eagles win by exactly 13 points to cause the three-way tie on points difference on H2H then the Wildcats could win the group if they better the Riders’ 21-point victory over the Mystics – the only scenario in which they could finish above the Riders.

South Group

Sevenoaks Suns 2-0 (+30)
Cardiff Met Archers 1-0 (+20)
Oaklands Wolves 1-2 (-20)
BA London Lions 0-2 (-30)

• Sevenoaks Suns have already qualified, they will win the group with a win
• Cardiff Met Archers will advance with a win OR if they lose by less than 21 points against London
  • They will win the group if they beat Sevenoaks
  • They will also advance if they lose by exactly 20 points against London AND by less than 10 points against Sevenoaks**
  • They will be eliminated if they lose by 21+ points against London AND any loss against Sevenoaks
• Oaklands Wolves are already eliminated, even in the event of a three-way tie
• BA London Lions will advance if they win by 21+ points AND Sevenoaks win
  • They will also advance if they win by exactly 20 points IF Sevenoaks win by 10+**
  • They will be eliminated with a loss OR if Cardiff beat Sevenoaks

**If Cardiff Met Archers lose both games this weekend, there will be a three-way tie for second place. If the Lions win by exactly 20 points, the three-way tie looks like this:

1. Archers 1-1 (0)
2. Lions 1-1 (0)
3. Wolves 1-1 (0)

The tie-break would then revert to overall points difference, which effectively adds in the result against the Suns. Suns beat the Lions by 10 and had the forfeited win by 20 against the Wolves.

So, if they beat the Archers by single figures then the Archers would advance, but a double-digit win would mean the Lions advance. An exact 10-point margin would favour the Lions as they would hold the H2H in the two-team tie-break.

Semi-final draw:

North winner (RIDERS/EAGLES/WILDCATS) v South runner-up (SUNS/ARCHERS/LIONS)

South winner (SUNS/ARCHERS) v North runner-up (RIDERS/WILDCATS/EAGLES/MYSTICS)

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